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The 2004 Elections in Indonesia

On 5 April 2004 Indonesian voters will elect members of the Indonesia House of Representatives (DPR) in addition to elections for the Regional Legislative Assembly’s (DPR DPD) and provincial and regency assemblies (DPRDs).

The results of the legislative elections will decide the strength of the major political parties and the candidates put forward for the office of President and Vice President, voting for which will take place in two later stages.

Also in 2004 Indonesia will for the first time hold Presidential elections in which the office of President and Vice President will be directly elected by the general public.

In previous elections both positions have been elected based on voting by members of Indonesia’s upper house, the People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR).

Indonesia’s fledgling democracy, closely associated with political maneuvering, rallies, demonstrations and money politics, means the potential for civil disorder is ever present.

The 2004 General Elections

Some 142 million voters will cast their votes at an estimated 470,000 voting stations throughout the country. Voters will vote both for parties and candidates. Voters may vote for a party and not for a candidate, but for their vote to count they must at least vote for a party. The votes at each station will be counted on the night of the election and will then be aggregated at successive levels (district, regional, provincial and national), depending on the office being elected.

Currently, the number of legislative seats to be contested at each level in the 2004 elections are as follows:

DPR (House of Representatives or Peoples Representative Assembly) 550
DPD (Regional Representatives at DPR) 128
DPRD I (Provincial Legislative Councils) 1860
DPRD II (Regency / Municipality Legislative Councils) 13,525

In the previous 1999 election, provinces were the electoral districts for the DPR and the provincial DPRD elections, however for the 2004 elections the electoral districts will be smaller and have been drawn up by the General Elections Commission (KPU), which will organize and oversee the elections process.

The 2004 Presidential Elections

The results of the elections for the legislative bodies are expected to be announced by 30 April 2004, and the KPU has pledged to complete the process as speedily as possible.

There will at that time undoubtedly be frantic deal making among the various political parties to form coalitions and to agree on the presidential and vice presidential candidates by a 7 May deadline.

Candidates from the more successful parties with high numbers of seats won in the DPR will most likely provide the presidential nominees, with less successful parties probably able to nominate vice presidential running mates for a particular presidential nominee.

Active campaigning for the presidential and vice presidential elections is scheduled for 1 June to 1 July 2004, followed by the election to take place on 5 July 2004, which it is understood is to be declared a national holiday.

To win on the first ballot, the presidential and vice presidential pairing must receive more than 50 percent of the votes cast. The result of the presidential elections will be announced on 26 July 2004. If no pairing receives more than 50 percent then the KPU will designate the two presidential and vice presidential pairings that received the greatest number of votes. These two pairings will move forward to compete in a run off election to be held on 20 September 2004, also expected to be declared a national holiday.

The new President and Vice President will be inaugurated on 20 October 2004.

Assessment of possible activity surrounding the election process

Good indicators of likely campaigning and protest activity can be gained from examination of the 1999 general elections.

In 1999, campaigning for contesting parties in the main took the form of rallies and marches with party supporters parading around the city waving party flags and adorned in T-shirts in their party colors.

The authorities in consultation with the major political parties agreed on a timetable, whereby only certain parties would be allowed to parade on given days in Jakarta and that in any event only one major party would be allowed to parade on any one day.

There was little evidence of door-to-door visits by party members in an effort to get across their particular mandate and in a number of cases it appeared that a lot of the campaign rallies involved individuals who had been paid to show up, many of whom were collecting different colored T-shirts on different days.

On days when larger parties were parading, Jakarta became a sea of color, however closer examination often revealed that high numbers of those involved were students, youths or in many cases pre-teens who were not eligible to vote in any event.

Given Indonesia’s troublesome past with civil unrest, there was surprisingly little unrest in the 1999 election campaign, although there were instances of violence in which supporters of the former ruling party, Golkar, were attacked as they paraded around the city centre area.

In addition, there were isolated incidents of violence in the provinces, though nothing escalated into anything more widespread.

It would seem likely that the KPU might seek to implement the same strategy as used in 1999 whereby larger parties campaign on different days.

From the government’s point of view, the elections will be closely watched by the international community and given a decline in investor sentiment over issues such as terrorism, sectarian and communal violence, legal uncertainty, then the authorities should be keen to ensure a smooth election process.

Since the events of recent years, Indonesian police now have considerable experience in crowd control and containment.

General Advice

• Undoubtedly the key for individuals to be able to continue their business and personal activities in a safe manner during the election process is to remain informed.
• In a number of occasions in 1999 several larger gatherings impacted the city centre business district, with serious disruption to traffic and in many instances companies with advanced information of rallies coming their way were able to either allow their employees to leave work early or advise them to allow additional time for travel to appointments.
• Where possible plan your daily or weekly activities and meetings in advance.
• If traveling to or from the airport then it may be necessary to allow additional time or to seek an alternative route.
• Avoid large crowds and if confronted by one then seek an alternative route.
• If you find yourself in a crowd situation, remain calm. The best advice is usually to keep vehicle doors and windows closed at all times, however in some instances participants in party rallies will make efforts to garner support from car travelers, either by seeking a donation or by handing out leaflets to them. Should you choose to cooperate then only open your window just enough to hand over a small amount of cash or to receive a leaflet.
• Be aware that criminals might seek to use a rally as an opportunity to perpetrate crime.
• Do not have personal items such as laptop computers or handbags in clear sight in your car.
• Ensure your handphone is charged daily and that your vehicle has adequate fuel and is well serviced.
• Ensure someone knows of your whereabouts and movements and that you remain contactable.
  

Our thanks to Terry Burkin of Hill and Associates for contributing this article in response to requests from website visitors.

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